Melbourne Cup Thoughts

1- Americain (15) 58kg

2- Jukebox Jury (6) 57kg

3- Dunaden (13) 54.5kg

4- Drunken Sailor (8) 54kg

5- Glass Harmonium (23) 54kg

6- Manighar (21) 54kg

7- Unusual Suspect (7) 54kg

8- Fox Hunt (19) 53.5kg

9- Lucas Cranach (11) 53.5kg

10- Mourayan (14) 53.5kg

11- Precedence (2) 53.5kg

12- Red Cadeaux (16) 53.5kg

13- Hawk Island (18) 53kg

14- Illo (1) 53kg

15- Lost In The Moment (3) 53kg

16- Modun (5) 53kg

17- At First Sight (10) 52.5kg

18- Moyenne Corniche (17) 52kg

19- Saptapadi (22) 52kg

20- Shamrocker (24) 52kg

21- The Verminator (4) 52kg

22- Tullamore (12) 52kg

23- Niwot (9) 51kg

24- Older Than Time (20) 51kg

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Can Win: Americain, Dunaden, Lucas Cranach, Mourayan, At First Sight, Moyenne Corniche, Tullamore, Niwot

Can Place: Jukebox Jury, Manighar, Unusual Suspect, Fox Hunt, Red Cadeaux, Illo, Modun, Shamrocker

Can’t Win: Drunken Sailor, Glass Harmonium, Precedence, Hawk Island, Lost In The Moment, Saptapadi, The Verminator, Older Than Time

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1- Americain (15) 58kg. Reigning champ who beat better field 2010. Average in France before top MV Cup win. Back-to-back looks within reach.

2- Jukebox Jury (6) 57kg. Best stayer in Europe. Kergolay breathtaking win! Irish St.Leger brave. Trainer has doubts over tempo. V. classy.

3- Dunaden (13) 54.5kg. Awesome Geelong Cup, v. arrogant. Poor in Kergolay before that, although excuses. Loses Williams, may be difference?

4- Drunken Sailor (8) 54kg. Keeps improving. Poor in Aus last season, but has came back with a decent Caul Cup run. Trip may suit. Perhaps.

5- Glass Harmonium (23) 54kg. Revelation! Excuses in Plate but tough on Saturday, kept finding! 2400m placed behind (22) but 3200m? Too far.

6- Manighar (21) 54kg. Always running well but lacks killer punch. Good in Europe this season. Had chance in Caul Cup but didn't win. Place.

7- Unusual Suspect (7) 54kg. First US runner in Cup, 1st Hollywood Cup. Problems before Caul Cup but was excellent. Might get too far back?

8- Fox Hunt (19) 53.5kg. German St Leger winner last start, good win. Climbing over backs in Ebor before that, very unlucky. Good roughie.

9- Lucas Cranach (11) 53.5kg. German import. Well documented problems into Caul Cup but was run of race. Barnstorming turn of foot. My tip.

10- Mourayan (14) 53.5kg. Import who has turned corner. Good win in Cummings before ripper 2nd in Mackinnon. Tough and will keep finding.

11- Precedence (2) 53.5kg. Excellent 8th last year. Plain all campaign however. Prefer without blinkers, don't think he is going well, Bart?

12- Red Cadeaux (16) 53.5kg. Curragh Cup winner in June. Sound in Kergolay before tough effort in Irish St.Leger. Perhaps too dour? Place.

13- Hawk Island (18) 53kg. Consistent Waller import. Good Sydney record before plain Caul Cup. Will run trip, but needs a bog to be chance.

14- Illo (1) 53kg. German import. Cummings has wanted more time with him, despite good on pace MV Cup effort. Good gate, run of race? Place.

15- Lost In The Moment (3) 53kg. G2 placed at Goodwood. Form tapered off since. Ok in Ebor, Plain at Ascot. Gets 3200m, but I prefer Modun.

16- Modun (5) 53kg. Godolphin acquisition. Sound Ebor before excellent September win. Has a good turn of foot. Prefer a lead up run though.

17- At First Sight (10) 52.5kg. Eng Derby runner-up. Showing promise before setback. Sound Bendigo Cup. Has tactical speed to win this.

18- Moyenne Corniche (17) 52kg. Ebor winner over good field. Excelled since out to trip. Excellent in Herbert Power. Trip no issue. Chance!

19- Saptapadi (22) 52kg. Surprised got run. Only Maiden (2400m) to credit. Ok in Herbert Power, average in Caul Cup. Looks too dour.

20- Shamrocker (24) 52kg. Best 3yo of 2011. Hasn't had chance to show form spring. Turnbull sound before average in Plate. 3200m, Flem plus.

21- The Verminator (4) 52kg. Staying pedigree. Excellent Metrop win, Mackinnon just ok. Will get trip, class the issue? Perhaps a place.

22- Tullamore (12) 52kg. Brisbane Cup winner. Excellent in Caul/MV Cups. Gets 5 kilo turnaround on winner. 3200m looks no problem. Chance.

23- Niwot (9) 51kg. 3200m L winner. Run much better than it looked in Caul Cup, no luck. Magnificent in Lexus. No weight gets trip. Can win.

24- Older Than Time (20) 51kg. Placed in Sydney Cup on a bog. Plain this campaign until good Tatts Cup run. Lacklustre in Lexus. No chance.

Lucas Cranach 1, Niwot 2, Americain 3, Moyenne Corniche 4

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J.Kayll

The Dilemma

Zagreb (middle) on the way to maiden success.

I have a dilemma. Should I continue with my reliable formula of buying tried horses for cheap prices, or refocus on youth to try to make my way up the PF stable list?

Photo Finish is a game dictated by great stables who have built up dynasties over the years they have played. With great racers comes great results in the breeding shed- and many leading stables have asserted their dominance over the years with well bred racehorses.

Seeing that stables winning the major races typically breed their own stock, I have began to try and build up a breeding side of my stable to try and keep up. Untried broodmares like Quarterview have been bought on the promise of their early racing careers. Proven broodmares like Lady Lava have been bought, on the premise of her established foals consistency. Others like Genuine Belle & Little Miss Pump, whilst not setting the world alight were horses I thought had the chance to their better traits to their foals.

While I was building up my breeding stock, my racing stable suffered. It was due to happen after a few years of success with stable buys Trigun & Fireball, but after getting acquainted with reasonable success it is a big ask to let it go lightly. JD Kayll Race Club won only one Group 1 for the season, albeit a decent one- the former Hopeful Farm champ For You To Envy prevailing in the Godolphin Mile. The first homebreds also raced last season and whilst they looked promising- none have looked liked becoming a star.

The mixed results of last season urged me to ask myself a question- should I ramp up my assault on buying tried horses again like I used to, or should I take a risk and try going back to square one and concentrating solely on breeding?

Taking the first option can guarantee short-term success, but without a huge bank and a great amount of luck it can come back to bite you on the ass. With tried racehorses also you cannot enjoy a long term of success like you would with a champion home bred. Quite often a tried horse is past its peak when bought but at least you get a guide to where it is at and what races you can target with the racehorse. This is in contrast to homebreds, even a horse with the greatest breeding in the world can prove a failure.

The latter option is a more risky move. If implemented properly however it can create dividends. Champions can be bought, but it is very expensive. For stables that don't have millions of dollars, breeding is their best chance of owning a champion. If you do by chance breed a champion, you also get the longer lasting benefits of that horses' offspring and so on. Not to mention the value of the sire and dam of the champion's value also rise. Breeding can be an expensive and low-reward exercise, but if you succeed your stable can be set up for life.

Last season I decided to take the matters into my own hands. After buying basically half the Chiquita Lodge stable I have ended up with 5 proven established racehorses: Awesome Assassin, champion sprinter D-Day, evergreen stayer November Rain, Rightwing & Zagreb. Awesome Assassin is a horse I think can string a few wins together in lower class races. D-Day's record speaks for itself and he was bought after a few years of pestering Donny. November Rain was a bit of an impulse buy for me being a person who loves stayers, Rightwing was another who had had good results in staying races in the past and Zagreb. Of the five I have had Rightwing the longest.

Rightwing looked gone after his lacklustre run in the G2 San Bernandino Handicap, but I believed the horse still had something to offer, and promptly dropped him down in class. Rightwing went on to win 3 of his next 4 starts, earning a profit upwards of $120,000. A nice return that mightn't look massive in the scheme of things- but can be something that helps build the coffers up for better successes.

Having a bit of pocket money at the end of last season, I decided to look out for a horse I think could be my next money spinner. Perhaps I went a bit overboard trying to acquire this one horse, but after getting Zagreb for $500,000 I was happy.

The horse was still a maiden, but I was impressed with his runs in some big races. Zagreb ran seventh in the Japan Cup in just his first start, and almost created the upset of the season when a close second in the Cox Plate at 30/1 behind Krazy Shiekh. The horse has immaculate breeding, both its parents being Cox Plate winners. I just believe the horse needed a drop in class- and as a result I entered him in the $50,000 Lord Mayors Mile at Victoria Park.

Starting at 6/1, Zagreb wasn't the favourite but he prevailed in a good finish over Blue Light. Zagreb left behind two Group 1 winners in Fanfulla da Lodi & Arsenic, both G1 winners at 2.

Whilst Zagreb has a long way to go before reclaiming his purchase price, perhaps he could become the next tried horse to win me a Group 1. I'm hoping the horse could be up to the Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m) or something similar.

Perhaps Zagreb and a few of his stablemates can keep the ball rolling whilst I continue to experiment with breeding, maybe it could even lead to the champion I've been waiting for.

Now here's a question for any readers, which move do you recommend- Should I continue buying tried racehorses or move my focus onto breeding good racehorses?