Melbourne Cup Thoughts

1- Americain (15) 58kg

2- Jukebox Jury (6) 57kg

3- Dunaden (13) 54.5kg

4- Drunken Sailor (8) 54kg

5- Glass Harmonium (23) 54kg

6- Manighar (21) 54kg

7- Unusual Suspect (7) 54kg

8- Fox Hunt (19) 53.5kg

9- Lucas Cranach (11) 53.5kg

10- Mourayan (14) 53.5kg

11- Precedence (2) 53.5kg

12- Red Cadeaux (16) 53.5kg

13- Hawk Island (18) 53kg

14- Illo (1) 53kg

15- Lost In The Moment (3) 53kg

16- Modun (5) 53kg

17- At First Sight (10) 52.5kg

18- Moyenne Corniche (17) 52kg

19- Saptapadi (22) 52kg

20- Shamrocker (24) 52kg

21- The Verminator (4) 52kg

22- Tullamore (12) 52kg

23- Niwot (9) 51kg

24- Older Than Time (20) 51kg

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Can Win: Americain, Dunaden, Lucas Cranach, Mourayan, At First Sight, Moyenne Corniche, Tullamore, Niwot

Can Place: Jukebox Jury, Manighar, Unusual Suspect, Fox Hunt, Red Cadeaux, Illo, Modun, Shamrocker

Can’t Win: Drunken Sailor, Glass Harmonium, Precedence, Hawk Island, Lost In The Moment, Saptapadi, The Verminator, Older Than Time

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1- Americain (15) 58kg. Reigning champ who beat better field 2010. Average in France before top MV Cup win. Back-to-back looks within reach.

2- Jukebox Jury (6) 57kg. Best stayer in Europe. Kergolay breathtaking win! Irish St.Leger brave. Trainer has doubts over tempo. V. classy.

3- Dunaden (13) 54.5kg. Awesome Geelong Cup, v. arrogant. Poor in Kergolay before that, although excuses. Loses Williams, may be difference?

4- Drunken Sailor (8) 54kg. Keeps improving. Poor in Aus last season, but has came back with a decent Caul Cup run. Trip may suit. Perhaps.

5- Glass Harmonium (23) 54kg. Revelation! Excuses in Plate but tough on Saturday, kept finding! 2400m placed behind (22) but 3200m? Too far.

6- Manighar (21) 54kg. Always running well but lacks killer punch. Good in Europe this season. Had chance in Caul Cup but didn't win. Place.

7- Unusual Suspect (7) 54kg. First US runner in Cup, 1st Hollywood Cup. Problems before Caul Cup but was excellent. Might get too far back?

8- Fox Hunt (19) 53.5kg. German St Leger winner last start, good win. Climbing over backs in Ebor before that, very unlucky. Good roughie.

9- Lucas Cranach (11) 53.5kg. German import. Well documented problems into Caul Cup but was run of race. Barnstorming turn of foot. My tip.

10- Mourayan (14) 53.5kg. Import who has turned corner. Good win in Cummings before ripper 2nd in Mackinnon. Tough and will keep finding.

11- Precedence (2) 53.5kg. Excellent 8th last year. Plain all campaign however. Prefer without blinkers, don't think he is going well, Bart?

12- Red Cadeaux (16) 53.5kg. Curragh Cup winner in June. Sound in Kergolay before tough effort in Irish St.Leger. Perhaps too dour? Place.

13- Hawk Island (18) 53kg. Consistent Waller import. Good Sydney record before plain Caul Cup. Will run trip, but needs a bog to be chance.

14- Illo (1) 53kg. German import. Cummings has wanted more time with him, despite good on pace MV Cup effort. Good gate, run of race? Place.

15- Lost In The Moment (3) 53kg. G2 placed at Goodwood. Form tapered off since. Ok in Ebor, Plain at Ascot. Gets 3200m, but I prefer Modun.

16- Modun (5) 53kg. Godolphin acquisition. Sound Ebor before excellent September win. Has a good turn of foot. Prefer a lead up run though.

17- At First Sight (10) 52.5kg. Eng Derby runner-up. Showing promise before setback. Sound Bendigo Cup. Has tactical speed to win this.

18- Moyenne Corniche (17) 52kg. Ebor winner over good field. Excelled since out to trip. Excellent in Herbert Power. Trip no issue. Chance!

19- Saptapadi (22) 52kg. Surprised got run. Only Maiden (2400m) to credit. Ok in Herbert Power, average in Caul Cup. Looks too dour.

20- Shamrocker (24) 52kg. Best 3yo of 2011. Hasn't had chance to show form spring. Turnbull sound before average in Plate. 3200m, Flem plus.

21- The Verminator (4) 52kg. Staying pedigree. Excellent Metrop win, Mackinnon just ok. Will get trip, class the issue? Perhaps a place.

22- Tullamore (12) 52kg. Brisbane Cup winner. Excellent in Caul/MV Cups. Gets 5 kilo turnaround on winner. 3200m looks no problem. Chance.

23- Niwot (9) 51kg. 3200m L winner. Run much better than it looked in Caul Cup, no luck. Magnificent in Lexus. No weight gets trip. Can win.

24- Older Than Time (20) 51kg. Placed in Sydney Cup on a bog. Plain this campaign until good Tatts Cup run. Lacklustre in Lexus. No chance.

Lucas Cranach 1, Niwot 2, Americain 3, Moyenne Corniche 4

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J.Kayll